Matt Zeitlin

Something is rotten in the state of Dub Nation. Although sub-.500 performance is something Warriors fans have come to expect, this year was supposed to be different. We have a new coach who “preaches defense” — and yet they give up a 28th best 106.5 points a game while scoring an 8th best 103.3 points a game. Oh yeah, and Warriors-typical atrocious rebounding — 20th in the league. But we do have a trio of talented offensive players — David Lee, who despite his poor defense can rebound and has impressive offense range for an undersized power forward, and the best scoring backcourt in the league, with Monta Ellis and Steph Curry. Some think that it has come time to split up this high-powered backcourt because Ellis and Curry are both undersized and Curry is especially poor at defense, leaving Ellis to try to guard big shooting guards, which is something he can only do so well. So who to trade?

As far as injuries go, Ellis gets the edge. He’s had one significantly injury shortened year — 2008-2009, when he was suspended for tearing a ligament in his ankle in a low speed moped accident — but considering the amount of minutes he plays and how hard he plays for those minutes, he is surprisingly resilient. He is, however, 25 and in his sixth NBA season. Curry, on the other hand, is in his second year of starting professional ball, is 23 and has had a nagging ankle problem which has limited him this year and kept him out of seven games.

And then the stats. Although one is tempted to ignore their frontline stats like points per game, Ellis’s ability to be able to play 40 minutes a game is noteworthy because it means the Warriors have someone who can create his own shot in for all but eight minutes and he keeps their defensive bench out of the game for even longer is noteworthy. Curry, however, is no slouch, and gets 35 minutes a game.

But when it comes to advanced stats, on most counts it’s a wash or Curry with a slight edge. All stats from basketball Reference.

Curry’s true shooting percentage this year is .592, Ellis’s is .539. Curry’s Win Shares this year is 4, Curry’s is 3.7. Ellis’s points produced per 100 possessions is 107, Curry’s is 115. Ellis’s estimated defensive rating per 100 possessions is 112 and Curry’s is 111, although this can be attributed to Curry often having to guard the better scoring guard on the opposing team. There’s also the fact that Curry, despite being only three years younger than Ellis, is only in his second season, and has seen his offensive efficiency go up since his rookie year and will probably continue to rise, whereas Ellis can probably continue his current production and this rate for a while longer, but has probably plateaued.

Another thing to keep in mind is that effective point guards are a rare commodity, but then again, so are high powered scorers like Ellis. And, more than anything, the Warriors need a defensive-minded, big center who can patrol the lane, block shots and get easy boards. But then again, who doesn’t?