Matt Zeitlin

Nate Silver has a post with graphs and data showing that “those states which have tended to take more liberal policies toward gay marriage have tended also to have larger declines in their divorce rates” and “Overall, the states which had enacted a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage as of 1/1/08 saw their divorce rates rise by 0.9 percent over the five-year interval. States which had not adopted a constitutional ban, on the other hand, experienced an 8.0 percent decline, on average, in their divorce rates.” Basically, there’s a pretty strong association between the strength of marriage as an institution as measured by the change in divorce rates over the past five years and the level of official sanction for gay unions.

So, does this mean, as Ezra Klein says, that gay marriage opponents “rely on some ridiculous arguments”? While I agree that most arguments against gay marriage — including that it weakens marriage as an institution — are quite bad, I don’t think Klein, Silver and other people attributing a ton of meaning to these statistics have quite the right take.

I think, pace Ross Douthat, that the reason we see socially conservative policies — from gay marriage bans to abstinence only sex-ed policies — in states where the social structures that they are trying to conserve are faltering is because people see that marriage and what not are falling apart and are looking for some sort of policy response to it. Throw in a dislike or aversion or lack of consideration for gays and you have strong support for gay marriage bans as social policy. But I don’t think it’s quite right to see this association as indicative of social conservative futility or silliness.

Also, when comparing divorce rates in richer, more educated states like Massachusetts to poorer, less-educated states like Kansas, it seems like one should also look at overall marriage rates. If there’s an expectation that everyone get married or if there isn’t less delaying marriage because of educational or professional attainment and achievement, then you’re probably more likely to see divorces as people get married who probably aren’t right for that marriage or for marriage at all.