It’s A Choice
When there’s an act of violence in a place that’s on the brink of conflict, or has a long history of conflict, people worry about the response. Even if that violence is purely meant to elicit an irrational, violent response that ratchets up the intensity of conflict and leads to more needless deaths, people will ruefully shake their heads and just assume that this one act of violence means that there are more to come.
I’m being too obscure here. My point is that in Northern Ireland, where IRA fighters killed three British officers in two days, there seems to have been no ratcheting up of tension or any real violence in response — from John Burns’ Times piece:
ut as formerly sworn enemies filed into a provincial church on Friday to mourn as one, the funeral of the slain policeman provided the latest and most powerful demonstration of the ways in which the province’s people and its leaders have united against a return to the violence that racked Northern Ireland for 30 years. Rallies that drew thousands to silent vigils this week in Belfast and other major towns across the north, and dozens of interviews across the province, suggested that the old antagonists — Roman Catholics and Protestants, nationalists seeking a united Ireland and Unionists committed to keeping Ulster a part of Britain — remain determined to settle their future in peace.
The thing is, in theory, there’s no reason why this basically shouldn’t always happen. In most cases, sectarian warfare — or just organized violence between groups in general — is a negative-sum activity. And most importantly, it’s a choice to respond to violent provocations violently. People and political groups aren’t billiard balls; they have agency. And in Northern Ireland, all the relevant groups have realized that they have more to win from not descending into more internecine violence.
Of course, there are reasons why it’s easier to avoid this chain on bloodshed in Northern Ireland than in, say, Iraq. There are groups who visibly have a lot to gain from peace, and the attacks occurred against a background of peace and quiet. But still, just because it’s easier in this case to resist these provocations, doesn’t mean that the underlying calculus is much different than it was in post Golden Mosque bombing Iraq or, to get really radical for a bit, post 9/11 America or post Sderot-rocket attacks Israel.
