Lazy Reasoning
Maybe it’s because I’m from California and am a big Golden Bears fan, but every year I’m convinced that if there were a playoff in college football, USC would be the national champion every year. That’s because SC is always on TV, and since Cal is in the Pac 10, we’re always forced to compare our good seasons to USC’s consistent greatness. Sure, it’s USC’s fault they aren’t contending for the championship (champions don’t lose to Oregon State), but they’re a very good team with a world-historically good defense (7.8 points per game, 206 yards per game). All of this means I’m pretty skeptical of Ivan Maisel’s case for Penn State having a chance at beating the Trojans. Of all the arguments Maisel makes for Penn State not being yet another Big 10 school just waiting to get the crap beat out of them in a de-facto home game for the Trojans, this one is the worst:
All of which explains why Penn State came within one point of finishing the regular season undefeated. There is even evidence to suggest that the Nittany Lions can beat the Trojans: Three weeks before Oregon State defeated USC 27-21, the Beavers were humiliated by Penn State, 45-14.
Whenver you see a writer making this type of argument, you know they’re peddling BS. Sure, there is an any given Sunday (or, any given January 1st) aspect to football, but the only responsible way to make predictions is to look at how the two teams have done over the past year, in aggregate. And by those measures, it’s clear that USC ought to be the prohibitive favorite. Penn State was able to rack up impressive offensive numbers against a very weak Big 10, and while the Pac 10 competition that USC faced wasn’t fantastic, their defensive stats are so impressive that we can assume that PSU won’t be a huge challenge. Also, by Maisel’s logic,”there is even evidence” that Northwestern could beat Penn State. After all, Iowa beat PSU 24-23, and Northwestern beat Iowa 22-17. But it’s obviously silly to expect either USC or Penn State to play their worst after a month off, especially considering the caliber of their coaching. The only responsible way to prognosticate football games is to basically expect both teams to play as they have been all year.
