Matt Zeitlin: Impetuous Young Whippersnapper

Ethan Bronner’s Times analysis on the Gaza situation says that the main purpose of Israel’s assault on Hamas in Gaze is to reestablish deterrence after the fiasco of the Lebanon war. This doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Israel, by launching this round of attacks, is saying that they feel the need to  militarily deter unaimed, potshot rocket fire from a small, heavily armed area that has received the Escape From Manhattan treatment since 2006.

Considering that firing these rockets doesn’t require a ton of intrastructure, people or support from the local Gazan population, it is unclear how killing Hamas leaders (and inflaming an already horrendous humanitarian situation) will change the equation vis a vis the rocket attacks. That’s because everyone is plenty aware that, at any time, Israel can kill lots of people associated with Hamas (or, if we’re talking 2006) Hezbollah. Anyone who assumes that Hamas, or anyone in the region, is ignorant of Israel’s overwhelming conventional ability to kill lots of people in any terrorists group is just being silly. On the other hand, if the political and military leadership thinks it can ever totally deter rocket fire from Gaza, a 25×6 mile strip run by a popular terrorist group that has been the victim of a blockade, they’re being incredibly naive. There’s also the niggling little fact that Hamas thrives on images of Israel killing Palestinians. And that’s why they call it the cycle of violence.