Matt Zeitlin: Impetuous Young Whippersnapper

So let me try to understand. Caroline Kennedy has made it known to David Paterson that she would like to be appointed senator. She also knows that there are several other New York politicians who would also like to be appointed. Because Kennedy is making her case so doggedly (in private, at least), surely she thinks that she is the best candidate. So, isn’t it weird that she’s foreswearing actually running for the seat in 2010?

Usually, just because a candidate thinks she would be better for the office doesn’t mean that they necessarily should or would take on the incumbent (which is why, say, Hillary won’t run in 2012). But the NY senate election in 2010 will be different. New York Senators, in most cases, have the stamp of approval from various powerful interest groups, fundraisers, and most importantly, the voters. And since senators from NY can raise so much money and get so much media attention, they usually have some sort of record of accomplishment after their first term. That’s why Schumer and Clinton, had she not accepted Secretary of State, would have been senators indefinitely and also why any NY democrat would be foolish to challenge them.

Whoever gets picked by Paterson, however, will not have sought and gained the approval of any interest group, raised money or actually won a statewide Senate election. And, after two years, he or she won’t have much of a profile, little legislative accomplishment, nonunanimous backing of interest groups or the experience of having won a statewide election. If Caroline Kennedy really thinks she’s the best person to represent New York, then she should probably run in 2010 – or at least not make it appear that she’s scared of facing the voters as anything less than a well-monied, establishment supported pseudo-incumbent.

Based on the tone of stories I’ve been reading recently, I’m becoming a bit more optimistic that Patterson won’t give her the seat.