Gaza, Again
There’s a horribly sad inevitability to violence in Israel and the occupied territories. As an Egyptian occupied truce between Hamas and Israel has ended, rockets have started to rain down on southern Israel. There haven’t been any deaths, but the Qassams have damaged property and stoked fear in the populace. A reasonable – and justified – reaction to the government of a psuedo-state launching rockets upon your territory is to strike back. And it appears like Israel is planning to do exactly that:
Israel moved closer to invading Gaza, saying Thursday it had wrapped up preparations for a broad offensive after Palestinian militants fired about 100 rockets and mortar shells across the border in two days.
Israel’s foreign minister brushed off a call for restraint from Egypt’s president, and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak made a direct appeal to Gaza’s people to pressure their leaders to stop the barrages. But the attacks showed no signs of ending. By nightfall, three rockets and 15 mortar shells had exploded in Israel.
My question is whether anyone in the Israeli security or political apparatus actually thinks that airstrikes or a ground invasion of Gaza will actually work. And, if they do reduce the rocket attacks, will it be worth the inevitable Palestinian civilian deaths? Especially considering that no Israelis have been injured or killed in the latest rocket barrage? The AP story indicates that most think that this proposed invasion won’t be worth it:
Despite the tough talk, Israel has been reluctant to embark on an offensive liable to exact heavy casualties on both sides. Gaza’s militants operate in crowded civilian areas, and past invasions have not halted the barrages.
I fear that the upcoming election, where both Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak are going up against superhawk Netanyahu is having a bigger influence on Israeli decision making than actual humanitarian or strategic considerations. It’s rare that a leader will face blame for striking those responsible for launching rocket attacks at their country. And so we have Barak saying that “whoever harms the citizens and soldiers of Israel will pay a heavy price” with Livni adding “Enough is enough, when there’s shooting, there’s a response. Any state would react that way.” Israelis should know best that simply acting as “any state” in such a reactive, unthinking manner isn’t always the best idea. Sure, it may be weird for a state to stoicly face rocket barrages without immediately resorting to a violent response, but it’s unclear if acting in the normal way has made Israel any safer. Perhaps its time to think unconventionally.
I fear that the upcoming election, where both Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak are going up against superhawk Netanyahu is having a bigger influence on Israeli decision making than actual humanitarian or strategic considerations.
Of course they are — there’s no doubt about it. If political considerations were not critical, forbearance on the part of Israel would be practiced more often, because forbearance works better than IDF attack copters when it comes to undermining Israel’s radical enemies (assuming, of course, that Israeli leadership reckons a two state solution is the eventual ticket out of this mess). The problem, of course, is that Israel is a democracy. I don’t think any democratic state on the planet would behave much differently. When rockets are raining down on you, you’re going to demand that your leaders strike back. Absolutely nothing is going to change this, and Hamas knows it.
Jasper
December 26, 2008 at 1:30 am
I think this is the right stance given the situation. But there’s one off remark.
Defense Minister Amir Peretz, 11/27/06: “Any attempt to fire into Israeli territories would be considered a breach of the cease-fire and treated with severity. Israel is interested in quiet, but would not accept attacks on its citizens.”
Where you right, “it may be weird for a state to stoicly face rocket barrages without immediately resorting to a violent response” it would be better to strike “immediately.”
Matt
December 26, 2008 at 2:15 pm