Predictions! Predictions!
Both Ned and Jamelle have posted their electoral college maps, and Jamelle memed me, so here it is:
HHere’s my thinking in having Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina swing red. I don’t have confidence in the Democrats’ ability to get turnout in red states (except those that are going through a rapid and large scale demographic-political change like Virginia). Until proven otherwise, the GOP is really good at getting people in red states to vote for them. I think Missouri could easily go Obama’s way, but I think it’s more likely that McCain wins by a real squeaker, like thousands if not hundreds of votes*. I also think Florida could tighten up and be really close, and I was even tempted to predict McCain victory there as well. And as far as Montana and North Dakota go, if you look at 538, McCain has fairly solid leads in both of them, but five points in Montana or North Dakota are a whole lot different than five points in Ohio or Missouri, so Obama could surprise me.
*Also, if I put Missouri down for Obama, then Jamelle and I would have the exact same map, and that wouldn’t be much fun
Good Morning.
I’d be interested in knowing how you get your polling info and just how reliable they are before I put a link to you on my blog.
Thanks
Lew
http://www.lnph.us
bluecollar49
October 30, 2008 at 4:49 am
Just a note on my home state: North Carolina is seeing a rapid demographic shift, heavily fueled by infusions of Northerners. So the past decade has seen 80-100k New Yorkers show up, if I read the stats correctly. The increase is heavily fueled by well-educated folk. The other trend is a substantial uptick in the Hispanic population.
It just might not be enough to turn NC blue this election.
Justin
October 30, 2008 at 7:57 am
It looks like Karl Rove plagiarized your map:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/11/electoral-map-o.html
Jonathan
November 3, 2008 at 7:00 pm