Two More Quick Hits on Palin
Ramesh Ponnuru sure knows how to make wonky liberals swoon! Here’s his take on Palin:
The cons:
Inexperience. Palin has been governor for about two minutes. Thanks to McCain’s decision, Palin could be commander-in-chief next year. That may strike people as a reckless choice; it strikes me that way. And McCain’s age raised the stakes on this issue.
As a political matter, it undercuts the case against Obama. Conservatives are pointing out that it is tricky for the Obama campaign to raise the issue of her inexperience given his own, and note that the presidency matters more than the vice-presidency. But that gets things backward. To the extent the experience, qualifications, and national-security arguments are taken off the table, Obama wins.
And it’s not just foreign policy. Palin has no experience dealing with national domestic issues, either. (On the other hand, as Kate O’Beirne just told me, we know that Palin will be ready for that 3 a.m. phone call: She’ll already be up with her baby.)
Tokenism. Can anyone say with a straight face that Palin would have gotten picked if she were a man?
Compatibility. It doesn’t seem as though McCain knows Palin well. Do we have much reason to think they would work well together?
Debates. Maybe, as Jonah said the other day, Biden will look like a bully going up against her—and maybe she’ll shine. But I can think of a lot of other picks who would have been lower-risk.
Sounds good to me!
But perhaps all this talk about Palin (and by extension Biden) really misses the point. Most political scientists think that the VP choice doesn’t matter that much in the election, and that the only thing they have to do is not embarass themselves in the VP debate. And this is where Palin could very well set a trap for Biden. By all accounts, Biden should be able to wipe the floor with Palin. Biden simply knows more about foreign policy and national issues than Palin does, and his sarcastic, logorrheic style could work very well in a debate. He will not only be the side that most Americans support, but he’ll be full of confidence. But he’s going up against a woman; and not just any woman, but an ex-beauty queen, especially feminine woman who recently had a child. She doesn’t project toughness like Hillary, she projects femininity. And as Michelle Cottle points out, America just won’t stand for men appearing to be rude or bullying towards women – even in a political debate:
And as irrational as they may be, the laws of politics forbid any man from behaving in a condescending, bullying, dismissive, mocking, or otherwise disrespectful fashion toward candidates of the fairer sex. Just ask poor Rick Lazio.
The fact that Palin looks to be a far more fragile flower than Lazio’s former opponent makes Biden’s job all the tougher. In head-to-head match ups, he will need to dismantle Palin completely, yet avoid triggering all those stupid, gut-level, subconscious, knee-jerk instincts that would lead voters to feel protective of her. This is particularly important in light of the remaining Hillary Issue. God forbid a meaningful chunk of Hillary dead-enders got it into their heads that, not only had Obama disrepected their gal, but now his number-two was dissing another sister.
Whine all you want about how all candidates should be viewed and treated the same regardless of gender. The research and history of our politics show they aren’t. Just something for Biden to think about when he’s strapping on the gloves.
Something to think about.
