Matt Zeitlin: Impetuous Young Whippersnapper

Finally, some bigger news than age of Chinese gymnasts or Evan Bayh’s wife getting her hair done. The Wall Street Journal reports that the US has signed a committment to withdraw from Iraq by 2011:

BAGHDAD — U.S. and Iraqi negotiators reached agreement on a security deal that calls for American military forces to leave Iraq’s cities by next summer as a prelude to a full withdrawal from the country, according to senior American officials.

The draft agreement sets 2011 as the date by which all remaining U.S. troops will leave Iraq, according to Iraqi Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed al-Haj Humood and other people familiar with the matter.

Teams of American and Iraqi negotiators spent months haggling over the deal, which represents a remarkable turnaround from just a few months ago, when talk of timetables and deadlines was routinely dismissed by the Bush administration and other Republicans in Washington.

Senior officials in Washington said the talks have concluded. The deal will be presented to the Bush administration and the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki for formal approval or rejection.

“The talking is done,” one U.S. official said late Wednesday night. “Now the decision makers choose whether to give it a thumbs up or a thumbs down.”

Now, it’s by no means certain that this deal will be accepted by the Iraqi government, which needs to seek approval from the parliament and cabinet, or if it will ensure a full pull-out by the agreed upon date. But the fact is that Nouri al-Maliki’s insistence on some sort of timetable for withdrawal convinced American negotiators that a permanent or indefinite presence in Iraq wasn’t viable or acceptable.

The other big news from the deal is that “The administration also dropped its insistence that American contractors remain immune from Iraqi law.” Not surprisingly, unaccountable, foreign contractors running around Iraq with no legal regime to guide their behavior was unpopular among Iraqis.

I imagine that the immediate political effects of the deal will be John McCain claiming credit for the deal by saying the Surge made it possible. However, the medium to long term effect will be the vindication of Obama’s plan and taking the issue of Iraq off the table as an election issue for the GOP. And if Obama wins the election, the GOP won’t be able to make a credible “stabbed-in-the-back” argument against Obama. If this deal is, well, the real deal, then we don’t have to fear a “partisan withdrawal.”

If I may get a tad panglossian about the entire matter, this is a HUGE vindication for war opponents. We were able to win the debate over whether or not it was a good idea to maintain an indefinite presence in Iraq. Even if some were coming around to some sort of withdrawal, this deal appears to set a dreaded “fixed timetable” meaning that even McCain’s recent hedges and machinations couldn’t match up with the quickly evolving consensus.

The other big winner is Nouri al-Maliki, and by extension, the Iraqi people. The occupation was never popular and there was always clear political pressure for al-Maliki to push for the exit of his patrons and protectors, the US military. It’s once again proof that imperial, indefinite occupations of foreign countries will never work – to once again quote John Judis, natives eventually grow restless. And who knows, their restlessness may have forced the most powerful country in the world to leave on their terms.

It’s also worth noting that McCain will look pretty dumb: just a month ago he was insisting that al-Maliki told him that he didn’t support the Obama withdrawal plan. Maybe advance news of this deal lead to McCain soft peddling Iraq as an issue recently. This shouldn’t hit them as a surprise; I imagine that someone in the White House or the military give him a heads up. Even so, the agreement should put McCain in quite the pickle. He said al-Maliki’s support for withdrawal was just due to the upcoming elections, but if the US government is now on board, where does that leave McCain? The argument over fixed vs conditions based seems to have been decided.

Kevin Drum has some more speculation on how all of this will play politically.

It’s unfortunate that I won’t be up till around 1 PM eastern (sorry, it’s summer). I imagine this will get all sorts of play in the blogosphere in the morning. Have fun guys!

UPDATE: I didn’t read the story carefully enough, apparently the deal calls for the withdrawal of all combat troops. There would still be some residual forces after 2011.

UPDATE 2: The Journal seems to have gotten quite the scoop. As of 4:14 EST, neither the Times nor the Post have anything on this deal. Interesting…