Bear Baiting
Although I’ve come around to the view that Russia is illegitimately stepping up the conflict in Georgia (call me a Keynesian), it’s still worth pointing out that this isn’t a new Cold War, or more importantly, that it doesn’t have to be.
Although it’s certainly true that Russia is bullying countries who want to be independent and democratic in its New Abroad, for this to be a true Cold War, Russia would have to be treating countries in, say, Latin America or Africa as they are Georgia. A quick look at the fundamentals, however, shows that this just isn’t possible:
Now that we can measure it,* we find that Russia’s GDP is approximately equal to that of Portugal (which is not to knock Portugal). Much of Russia’s wealth comes from resource extraction: in other words, Russia is not making stuff. Is it thinking stuff instead? Well, is there a nascent biotech or semiconductor industry in Russia today? (Or is there maybe some other, more esoteric kind of activity that hasn’t yet permeated popular consciousness?) How are Russian universities doing?
Russia is fairly populous, although no one would call it densely populated. However, its population is shrinking; in part, because it is not a healthy country.
And when we look at Russia’s geopolitical ambitions, or the parts of the world where they are brushing up against the United States, we’ll notice that the only reason we’re brushing up with Russia is because we’re trying to influence events in small countries that are A. very close to Russia and B. Have historically been part of Russia. It’s not like Russia is lending serious support to communist guerrillas in Colombia or trying to overthrow the government in Turkey. In so much as there is a new Cold War, it’s one that’s very much of our making.
Of course, the way the Kaganauts would have it, our New Cold War is with Russia and China, but that’s just rank silliness.
