Game Over
The fact that Nouri Al-Maliki, the political figure who has benefited most from both the surge and a continued US presence in Iraw (besides John McCain, of course) has come out in support of Obama’s withdrawal plan, probably should deliver the election to Obama:
U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes [...] The Americans have found it difficult to agree on a concrete timetable for the exit because it seems like an admission of defeat to them. But it isn’t.
I must admit that I’ve been wavering in recent days over whether or not a relatively quick withdrawal (a la Obama’s plan) was still a good idea. George Packer’s recent New Yorker Comment made a good argument for Colin Kahl’s conditional withdrawal plan, namely that there were real gains that could only be reserved with some sort of US presence, and that a fixed timetable that definitely ended in withdrawal could not achieve the dual goals of putting pressure on the Maliki government to get its act together while keeping violence low. With Maliki himself supporting a definite withdrawal over 16 months, however, the game totally changes. All the small bore gains and goals that Packer describes are totally unsustainable and unattainable in a world where the government we’re trying to support becomes opposed to our presence. And even if the anonymous McCain advisor is right and al-Maliki’s statements are purely motivated by “domestic politics,” it still means that any Iraqi leader will inevitably be forced to call for the end of an unpopular, foreign occupation.
The interesting question is not how McCain and conservative hawks will react – they probably will continue to insist that we have to crush Al Qaeda and stay indefinitely to protect our honor – but instead the George Packers of the world who justify their support for a continued presence largely on the lines of holding up the current central government. If the central government, or more importantly their supporters, don’t want us, shouldn’t we just leave?
Today it has come out that Nouri Al-Maliki, has backed off those statements saying that a concrete timetable would certainly be very dangerous. It is going to be interesting to see how McCain reacts to these statements but right now, I think Al-Maliki is wanting to feel that the country is completely in his control and would like to see the country fully governed and policed by Iraqi’s but he knows that right now that is not possible.
However I find it as a positive sign that Al-Maliki’s comments can mean so much to public opinion now. Not to long ago people would have heard Al-Maliki’s comments and just took it with a grain of salt, because of how unoptimistic the outlook on the government’s success was.
jimmyk12
July 20, 2008 at 9:50 am
Interview Request
Hello Dear and Respected,
I hope you are fine and carrying on the great work you have been doing for the Internet surfers. I am Ghazala Khan from The Pakistani Spectator (TPS), We at TPS throw a candid look on everything happening in and for Pakistan in the world. We are trying to contribute our humble share in the webosphere. Our aim is to foster peace, progress and harmony with passion.
We at TPS are carrying out a new series of interviews with the notable passionate bloggers, writers, and webmasters. In that regard, we would like to interview you, if you don’t mind. Please send us your approval for your interview at my email address “ghazala.khi at gmail.com”, so that I could send you the Interview questions. We would be extremely grateful.
regards.
Ghazala Khan
The Pakistani Spectator
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Ghazala Khan
July 21, 2008 at 9:27 am
I think it all depends on how deep the media penetration of this incident goes. McCain won’t be hurt about this unless it becomes kitchen-table talk.
A.E.
July 23, 2008 at 11:53 pm