Matt Zeitlin: Impetuous Young Whippersnapper

Kevin Drum looks at some survey data and the results from California 2000 referendum banning recognition of out-of-state and international gay marriages and is pessimistic:

In 2000 Californians voted to ban same-sex marriage by a margin of 63%-37%. If attitudes toward gay marriage have followed their historical pattern, about 9% more Californians are in favor of it this year, which means they’d still vote to ban it, but by the smaller margin of 54%-46%.

In other words: this is likely to be very close. These numbers have fairly big error bars attached to them, and it’s also possible, especially in California, that attitudes toward gay marriage since 2000 have softened faster than in the past. Still, right now it looks to me like the odds are slightly stacked against those of us who favor same-sex marriage. This is going to be a very tough campaign.

Although I agree with Kevin that the campaign to defend the Court decision will be tough, I’m also quite optimistic. For one, the argument that this is “judicial activism” or some sort of usurpation of the legislature won’t hold water. The legislature passed bills to recognize gay marriage twice, and the Governor vetoed them both times, because he wanted the court to make a ruling. Governor Schwarzenegger fully supports the decision and has said that he won’t support an amendment overturning it. This is a huge blow to the referendum, Schwarzenegger is by far the most popular and credible Republican in California. Also, the judges who made the decision were all elected in landslides and have basically zero controversy around them, so a populist, anti-judicial activist campaign will not work.

The real reason I’m optimistic that this referendum won’t pass is because gay marriage will have some inertia behind it. It’s much easier to oppose gay marriage when it’s some looming threat out to destroy your family and what not. When gay marriage is a reality, and you see that the negative effects are all phony, it becomes much harder to organize people and channel the energy necessary to overturn the Court’s decision. It will be a hard fight, of course, but I’m cautiously optimistic.