Two Can Play This Game
Posted by Matt Zeitlin on May 14, 2008
Alex Massie links to this map showing where Clinton has gotten 65 or more percent of the vote. There’s a essentially a purple belt across West Virginia, central Pennsylvania, Tennessee, parts of Missouri and most of Appalachia/hillbilly/core white working class country. Also, last night, I heard Dick Morris say last night on Fox that a Democrat needs to win West Virgina to the win the election. The implication is that Obama can’t win the rust belt states, which makes him either a weak general candidate, or necessitates that he sign up Jim Webb. Too bad this is just wrong.
The idea that a Democrat “needs” these old rust belt states is based on where the population was 10, 15 even 20 years ago. The trend is that the Rust Belt and Lower Midwest is depopulating for the Sun Belt and the Mountain States. So, shouldn’t we be focusing on how Democrats are doing in a blue-trending state like Colorado, instead of more-red-than-not state like West Virginia? Obama, like in most Mountain West states, absolutely crushed Clinton by a 2-1 margin. Or take Iowa, another swing state that is chalk full of white people, Obama won there too. And if everyone is freaking out about Obama’s “weakness” in states that Democrats need to win, why aren’t we talking about Clinton getting annihilated in Minnesota or Washington?
It’s just true that Obama doesn’t need the states that the media keeps on telling the Democrats they need to focus on. If Obama can win the Kerry states and flip Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, he has the election.
